Israel Bombs Lebanon: Potential Escalation of Violence

Israel's Friday bombing campaign was in response to 34 rockets being fired toward its territory on Thursday. The Israeli army blamed Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip and has a faction in Lebanon, for the attack. The Lebanese government has said it was working to de-escalate tensions through the Iran-backed Shia armed movement, Hezbollah, which also did not claim responsibility for the attack, despite its control over security in southern Lebanon. Hamas’s presence and power in Lebanon have grown in recent years, and the group’s leadership meet often with Hezbollah leaders.

Potential for Escalation

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, previously stated that any Israeli attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque would “inflame the entire region”. After a meeting between Nasrallah and the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, the two groups' officials repeated their shared position. However, there are doubts over Hezbollah's involvement in the rocket attack, with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib stating that "Palestinian militias" were behind the launches. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have announced that the attacks on Gaza and Lebanon have ended "as long as there is no renewed rocket fire".

According to Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon for the Crisis Group, throughout the years since the end of the 2006 war, violence across the Israeli-Lebanese border has largely been conducted in a quid-pro-quo manner, and there is no significant risk of further escalation regarding the latest incident. However, Wimmen argues that the intensity of Thursday’s attack on Israel, the biggest since the end of the war, was not something to ignore. The increase in the number of rockets fired increased the chances of casualties in Israel, inevitably leading to a tougher response.

Risks for Civilians

The retired couple, Majed and Nawal, who live in Qlaileh, describe themselves as "products of war", having lived through most of it. Although similar exchanges have happened since the end of the 2006 war, this week’s incident was the most significant since the unofficial end of the conflict 17 years ago, awakening memories of troubled times in the minds of residents. Majed and Nawal have not been able to sleep since Thursday’s attack, and many of their family and friends left for Beirut as soon as they heard rockets.

while there is no significant risk of further escalation, the recent attack is a reminder of the precarious situation for civilians on both sides of the conflict.